Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Choosing Coin Flip or Not

With the progression of a poker game, after raising and re-raising more and more the pot, there are moments when we have to choose to continue or not the game by betting on them only on "coin flips", these shots which we have to toss up. Even if everybody tries to avoid this dilemma, this delicate choice often happens in a poker game leading sometimes to involvement stack in stake. But even if coin flips is an inescapable stage in poker and what everybody cannot gain each time, the fact that great players of poker often achieve on the top of classification of poker tournaments can be explained thus by other matter: a style of poker game dictated by the position and the control of the pot. Indeed, the word "edge", the advantage of a big player against the others is often advanced by especially their experience.

Purely mathematical approach which dictates the fact of choosing coin flips according to a particular hand is indeed banished from big players’ vocabulary, reading of the situations instead of the preflop and post-flop is more important for them. Indeed, mathematical approach does not take into account the dynamics of the tournament.

In practice, theory of great authors as David Slansky or Dan Harrington allows to wander from these choices dictated by coin flips. According to them, "the chips I lose have more value than the chips I gain". If the mathematical arguments give you a chance by 2 to gain a shot where you have already bet 10,000 in the pot, great players do not see it like this. Adding 50,000 to your stack would not really change the dynamics of the game. On the other hand, loosing 50,000 would change absolutely everything. Indeed, if you try to increase your pot into 150,000 by tempting coin flips, you can very well fall again in 50,000. Indeed, you depend strictly on chance. At a moment of the poker tournament, your survival depends on a decision heads or tails, but a talented player owes maintain his advantage and leave aside this desire to gain.

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